Downtown Fresno Retail/Entertainment Analysis
Southeast side of the Chuckchansi Park at the Fulton Mall. The City completed the baseball stadium in 2002 to serve as an anchor for the area and increase economic activity. It does not operate at its economic full potential.
Strategics Economics (SE) put together a market analysis report of Downtown Fresno. This post serves a summary of SE’s findings for the retail market in Downtown Fresno and the market’s future demand.
CURRENT CONDITIONS
Downtown Fresno contains a handful of entertainment venues. We have Chukchansi Park, Fulton 55, historic theaters, art galleries and museums. However, there is no significant clustering of entertainment and retail space in the Area. We see that else where with River Park and Fashion Fair Mall. Downtown, right now, is unable to compete with the convenience of North Fresno. I’ll say it many times - Fresnans love convenience more than anything.
ASSUMPTIONS
The only listed shopping center in Downtown Fresno is the Fulton Mall. There is a cluster of major shopping centers in Northwest and Northeast Fresno. These shopping centers are adjacent to major corridors such as Highway 41, Herndon and Shaw Avenues.
SE makes the assumption that retail/entertainment centers have the ability to pull househoulds as far as a 45-minute drive from the area. They call this the 45-Minute Trade Area. Most of their findings are based on data that covers a 45-minute radius of Downtown. This includes Fresno, Kings, Madera and Tulare counties. So, we’re looking at 392,000 households, totaling 1.3 million people. The population is expected to increase to over 2 million (635,000 households) by 2035.
CURRENT DEMAND
The diagram below reflects the buying power in the market area. This data was then used to calculate the buying power in the short-run (2008-2015) and long-run (2015-2035).
FUTURE DEMAND
The table below shows the amount of newly occupied retail space the Downtown Fresno can see between 2008 and 2035.
The low-end of future demand for retail space assumes that there are little improvements made in public infrastructure and amenities. Also, there is a low degree of household and job creation in Downtown. The high-end assumes that the City invests in several infrastructure projects, increases the area’s safety, and hands outs incentives to retail and mixed-use projects. The City is encouraged to invest in public infrastructure to “kick start” private investment. This is a common theme throughout the report and the Fulton Corridor Specific Plan (FCSP).
Restaurants and specialty stores are expected to be most attracted to Downtown Fresno, especially near existing entertainment centers like the Chukchansi Park. The stadium, theaters, and museums would be smart places to invest around. You can see this clustering happening already on Fulton and Tuolumne Streets. All of the ground-level retail spaces in the Warnors Theatre are now occupied, for the first time in years.
Twee Boutique moved from the Tower District to the Warnors Theatre. The owner, Melanie Davis, reported a increase in sales and foot traffic. She says that there is a strong sense of community among business owners in Downtown. The space is well-suited for her indie/Fresno-centric craft boutique.
___
Read more about the real estate market in Downtown Fresno:
___
Have a lovely day in Fresno!
Veronica Stumpf, C-Broker
Stumpf and Company, Commercial Real Estate
DRE Lic. #01906952
